![]() It seems like throughout the season, hitters actually caught on, as even before he went down, his xwOBA-against on the four-seamer was an unthinkably bad. 300, but that’s what Lee managed with aplomb in 2022. You don’t generally see anyone posting fastball xwOBAs-against well below. Something that worked really well for Lee in 2022 was surprising guys, especially lefties, with his fastball, even in deep pitcher’s counts. (Alvarez got his revenge against a lefty later, hitting a game-winning homer off A.J. With the go-ahead run on second and none out, Lee prevented things from getting even worse by retiring Yordan Alvarez (pop-up to short), Jose Abreu (flyout to right), and Kyle Tucker (strikeout) in order. Lee came on in relief of Jesse Chavez, who blew a three-run lead without retiring a batter in the seventh. Perhaps his most memorable outing came on April 21, in an eventual loss to the Astros. ![]() (If you set the cutoff before his sacrificial lamb outing against the Rangers, his numbers overall resembled what he did in 2022.) Aside from those last three outings, his numbers overall were not much worse than in 2022, and his numbers against lefties were comparable. And, to add injury to insult, Lee then went back on the shelf with shoulder inflammation, ending his season. Those three outings literally caused him to lose the entirety of the fWAR he had accumulated through the rest of the season. His first outing was a scoreless effort against the Dodgers, but then he posted an 0/1 K/BB ratio and allowed two homers to the next 13 batters he faced across three starts. When he did return, things went terribly. While the injury itself was only listed as “inflammation,” it took Lee over three months to return to a big league mound. But, on May 16, he was hung out to dry by facing 11 batters (many of them righties) against the Rangers, and then hit the shelf with one of the scariest things that can happen to a pitcher: a shoulder injury. He had a stellar 53/75/81 line up through May 13 his first 19 innings of the season were about as good as his 2022, including a surprising bullpen game opening where he threw 2 2⁄ 3 innings with a 3/1 K/BB ratio. ![]() The topline results actually obscure the story, though. In a twist of fate, Lee had negative WPA last year despite a 12/7 shutdown meltdown ratio, but somehow ended up with highly positive this year despite five each of shutdowns and meltdowns. Lee’s topline results were 94 ERA-, 103 FIP-, and 93 xFIP-, which were very disappointing given his 2022. He basically seemed like an average reliever, with all the volatility that entailed, and elite upside, which, again, describes relievers and Lee in a nutshell. Projections-wise, though, he was pretty hard to forecast, because he was a reliever with a strong rookie season and a solid 2021 in Triple-A, but essentially no useful track record beyond that. He completely dominated lefties and was more than fine against righties, which made him an obvious fit as the Braves’ second higher-leverage Minter, behind A.J. Lee’s 2022 was fantastic, as he posted a 52 ERA-, 68 FIP-, and 78 xFIP- en route to 1.1 fWAR. He spent most of 2021 at Gwinnett and even started the 2022 season there, before blossoming into a key member of the relief corps. Originally a tenth-round pick by the Marlins back in 2016, Lee was released by Miami in March 2021 and then scooped up by the Braves in a minor league deal. ![]() 2023, through, showed the volatility that is relief pitchers in a nutshell, as Lee struggled and went down with injury. After making a World Series start in a whirlwind 2021, Dylan Lee broke out in 2022, going from an unknown depth piece stashed at Triple-A Gwinnett to a vital piece to Atlanta’s bullpen.
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